Week 11 NFL picks

Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 9-2-1

This Year (started in week 10): 9-2-1

(all lines taken from Bovada)

Tampa Bay (pick) over Atlanta

You know the old adage…”never bet against Mike Glennon. Or is it “Always bet against Mike Glennon”? Regardless, Atlanta is terrible and Tampa Bay is still fighting each week, I’ll take the home team for their second straight win.

New York Jets (-2) over Buffalo

The playoffs are a real possibility for the Jets right now and they know it. Having a bye week to prepare their top 5 defense for a rookie quarterback means they will keep those hopes alive.

Detroit (-3) over Pittsburgh

This whole thing with Ben Roethlisberger and the trade rumors makes me doubt what the Steelers will do the rest of the year. They aren’t going to make the playoffs and I don’t know if Big Ben wants to be there anymore. Sine the Lions are playing so well right now I have to go with my team.Plus the Lions are playing great right now. WARNING: This spread seems too low. It’s either the gimme bet or this week’s sucker bet. I’m blinded by my fandom though so I’m taking it, sucker or not.

Baltimore (+3) over Chicago

Chicago has way too many injuries right now (Briggs, Tillman, Cutler). The Bears defense, although good, isn’t as deep as it’s been in the past. These injuries (especially Peanut) will be too much to overcome.

Cleveland (+6) over Cincinnati

Same as Chicago, Cincy is hurting right now. Every week they lose another cornerstone player (Geno Atkins, Leon Hall) and this is the week it becomes too much. Cleveland has a great defense and Jason Campbell has played well enough to keep them in any game. I’m confident he can keep them within six points against what’s left in Cincinnati.

Texans (-10) over Oakland

Who the hell is Matt McGloin?

Arizona (moneyline) over Jacksonville

It’s not a good line to take straight up but parlaying it with other bets would be a good move. Andre Ellington will shred the Jacksonville defense.

San Diego (-3) over Miami

I’m betting against Miami every week until this bullying thing blows over. So basically the rest of the season.

New Orleans (-3.5) over San Francisco

It took me ten weeks to realize it but it’s finally clicked. San Francisco isn’t great. They’re good but not great. They will make the playoffs because they ALWAYS take care of business against the bad teams but are 1-3 against potential playoff teams. New Orleans is a surefire playoff team and my SuperBowl pick for the NFC so of course I have to go with them. Plus the Saints are pretty close to unstoppable at home.

New York Giants (moneyline) over Green Bay

Don’t look now but the Giants are making a run for their division and playing Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers makes that possible. This is another team I’m going to bet against for a few weeks. There’s just too big of a shift in identity when Rodger’s goes down.

Denver (moneyline) over Kansas City

Kansas City is 9-0 and a 7.5 point underdog. That scares me away from the spread but I still think Denver will win at home. When they play again I’ll probably take the Chiefs. These two seem pretty evenly matched so when in doubt I always pick the home team.

New England (+1) over Carolina

I like Carolina to win but it’s too hard picking against Belichick after a bye week. He will think of something that slows down Cam Newton. And Gronkowski and Amendola are healthy for at least the first quarter.

You may have noticed that I don’t pick the Thursday game. There’s two reasons for that: 1) I like to wait until the end of the week to make my picks so I can get all of the information straight before putting hypothetical money on a situation. 2) When teams play on short rest and limited practice it makes them more unpredictable in my opinion.

Also, I didn’t pick anyone for the Seattle/Minnesota game or the Redskins/Eagles. These aren’t picks for EVERY game these are meant to be as many correct picks as possible. If you have ever illegally bet on sports (which I haven’t) you know you don’t need to put money on every game. You’re goal is to just never be wrong. That’s also why I take moneylines. They pay less but you’re much more likely to get them right and you don’t lose money when you get picks correct.

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