Week 12 Picks
Last Week: 4-7-1
This Year (started in week 10): 13-9-2
(all lines taken from Bovada)
What a terrible week I had last week. Almost every pick against the spread was wrong. That’s embarrassing. If I continue making these bad of picks I might get offered a job as an ESPN analyst.
Tampa Bay (+7.5) against Detroit
As Megatron goes, so does the Lions offense. That’s why the Calvin Johnson/Darrelle Revis matchup will make or break this game. If Calvin continues his rampage on the NFL the Lions could win easily, but if Revis slows him down (which he probably will at least a little) the Bucs have a legit chance to win. In the one game Calvin Johnson missed earlier this year the Lions could barely move the ball. That being said, I think the Bucs will at least cover. They play hard and seem to compete in every game.
Jacksonville (+10) over Houston
I don’t think Houston should be a double digit favorite over ANYone. Plus I’m not sold on Case Keenum.
Minnesota (+5.5) over Green Bay
I’m really nervous that I’m picking three straight road teams to cover. Oh well, Scott Tolzien made me do it.
Kansas City (-4) over San Diego
San Diego’s defense is so bad even Alex Smith can excel. Chiefs get things back on track after getting their first loss last week.
Carolina (moneyline) over Miami
I thought Miami was going to fall apart for the rest of the season amidst all the off field chaos but last week they were at least good enough to beat San Diego (and hold that offense to 16 points). I don’t think they can do it two weeks in a row, especially against Carolina who might be one of the best teams in the NFC. Carolina keeps rolling.
Cleveland (-1) over Pittsburgh
Cleveland’s secondary is not Detroit’s. Time to face reality Big Ben.
Chicago (+1) over St. Louis
The Bears are frantically fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and they get to play Kellen Clemens this week. This game is much, much more important for the Bears, that’s what is swaying me.
Ravens (moneyline) over New York Jets
The Ravens are completely unpredictable so I try to stay away from their spreads. I still think they win at home but honestly who knows. This is the weirdest post-Super Bowl team I’ve ever seen.
Indianapolis (+3) over Arizona
I physically cannot pick against Andrew Luck. I love ’em. Plus I hate Carson Palmer but if you’ve ever read a single blog post I’ve ever written you already know that. I work it into every piece.
New York Giants (moneyline) over Dallas
I just want this to happen. The Giants HAVE to win this division. It will be the most awe inspiring run that leads to a first round blowout we will ever see. This division is a suck-fest.
Denver (-3) over New England
Manning verse Brady. Welker verse Amendola. Gronkowski vs. No-Shirt Laws. It will be another battle royal that will add to an already storied rivalry.
San Francisco (-6) over Washington
Robert Griffin might not be good. I’m coming to that realization and I think the 49ers defense has a legitimate chance to knock him out of this game.